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重大预期 | 至2020全球皮草供应量将大幅缩减约50%

作者: ? ?来源: ? ?发布时间:2019/1/17 16:56:39

?Fewer skins than expected for the two first auctions at Kopenhagen Fur

哥本哈根皮草前两个拍卖会收皮量低于预期


For our first two auctions of 2019, farmers have sent in fewer skins than expected. There will be 3.3 million skins for January auction and around 5 million skins for March auction, which include 2 million unsold skins from 2018 auctions.

目前,哥本哈根皮草2019年前两个拍卖会收到的皮张数量低于预期。一月拍卖会预计供应330万张水貂皮,三月拍卖会预计供应500万张水貂皮,这其中已经包含2018年拍卖季的200万张未售出皮张。

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Worldwide offering of mink in 2019 is expected to drop

2019全球水貂供应量缩减


We also see that Kopenhagen Fur will receive fewer mink skins during the whole of 2019 than first expected, as part of a worldwide tightening of supply. We currently expect less than 40 million mink skins to be offered worldwide this year. It’s possible that it could be even less.

作为全球缩减供应的一部分,哥本哈根皮草在整个2019年中收到的皮张将低于此前预期。目前,我们预期今年全球水貂皮供应量为不足4000万张,甚至会更少。

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Significantly reduced supply in 2020

2020年全球供应量将大幅减少

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Data from farmers points to a similar trend. Already, we see that farmers have reduced the number of mink used for breeding. This indicates that the decline in world production of mink will continue into 2020.

目前,我们看到养殖户已经减少种貂数量,全球水貂养殖量将在2020年迅速下降,来自养殖户的各项数据均符合这一趋势。


Based on the current information from the market, we expect that next season’s supply of mink skins will be reduced by another 35 percent, which means that only around 25 to 28 million mink skins will be offered Worldwide in 2020.

根据目前市场的情况,我们预计下个卖季水貂供应量还将继续减少35%,这意味着在2020年,全球水貂供应量将约为2500-2800万张。


As a result, far fewer skins will be in circulation in 2020.

因此,2020年的水貂皮供应量将大幅减少。